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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.