Daily Killings in the nation Decline 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The typical number of everyday killings each month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh official figures. However, security specialists have cautioned that murder data might not indicate better countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen during these months is very significant,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent organized crime infighting, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an apparently steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between government authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

However, security researchers cautioned that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to properly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it may mask periods when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Using the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.