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Just 48 hours before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed the progressive now. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.